Institutions predict that CPI will increase by 2.2% in August, and inflation pressure will be small in the second half of the year.
Recently, affected by natural disasters in Shandong and other places, the price of vegetables has risen. The average price of 28 kinds of vegetables monitored by the Ministry of Agriculture and Rural Areas has increased by 2.3% month-on-month and 3.5% year-on-year. Market concerns may trigger a certain degree of inflation.
CITIC Securities chief fixed-income analyst Ming told the "Securities Daily" reporter yesterday, according to the seasonal law of vegetable prices, from July to September, the vegetable market is in the stage of green and yellow, the summer vegetables began to gradually withdraw from the market, and the autumn vegetables have not yet been supplied in large quantities. The quantity is reduced in stages, so vegetable prices rise seasonally from July to September. From the 2014 to 2018 Shandong vegetable price index, it can be seen that the vegetable prices are rising from July to September, and the seasonal factors are no exception this year. However, this year's vegetable price index is higher than the same period of the past few years. Therefore, factors such as floods have a significant impact.
It is clear that the impact of four floods on CPI since 2000 has been around for about 3 months, resulting in an average CPI increase of 0.3% per month. The impact of the Shouguang flood in Shandong is less than four major floods, because there is no flood disaster nationwide, but considering that Shandong is a vegetable planting base, the impact of this flood on vegetable prices is obvious, so this may be The impact of Shandong Shouguang Flood on CPI will last for two months, but the impact is limited.
"From the perspective of regional laws, disasters in specific regions have a significant impact on national CPI. The Shandong Shouguang disaster has caused the price of vegetables in Shandong to rise, which may push the price of vegetables in the country, and the increase in vegetable prices will push CPI to a certain extent. Upward; from the law of the duration of vegetable price shocks, the impact of the Shandong flood disaster on CPI may last for 2 months. From the current point of view, the pressure of inflation in the second half of the year is not large, and the monetary policy will remain in order to stabilize domestic demand. The direction is loose, so the short-term interest rate continues to fluctuate at a low level, and the long-end interest rate will fall back to the 3.4%-3.6% range." Ming told reporters.
Jiang Chao, an analyst at Haitong Securities, said yesterday that pork prices continued to rise last week, vegetable prices rose, and food prices rose by 1% from the previous week. The increase was larger than the previous week. The price of food in August is expected to increase by 2% month-on-month, and the growth rate of CPI in August will rise to 2.2%. It is predicted that the PPI will be flat in August, and the PPI in August will fall back to 3.7%. The flooding of Shandong Shouguang, a vegetable county, also caused short-term vegetable prices to rise, which intensified food price increases, and brought about a slight increase in short-term inflation expectations.
Zhang Jun, chief economist of Morgan Stanley Huaxin Securities, told the Securities Daily reporter yesterday that the impact of the recent typhoon on Shandong and other places will significantly increase the price of fresh vegetables. Therefore, in the next few months, we will see a certain rebound in food prices in the CPI. However, as long as the international crude oil price does not rise significantly, non-food prices will remain relatively stable. Therefore, CPI may rise under the guidance of food prices in the next few months, but the overall price is still controllable, and there is no need to adjust at the monetary policy level. response.
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