Driven by the robust Chinese market, the global aviation industry is accelerating its pace of eastward shift in the center of gravity, while trade protectionism has cast a shadow over the upbeat prospects for the growth and benefits of aviation, according to the International Air Transport Association (IATA).

IATA expected that 2019 will be the tenth profitable year and the fifth consecutive year where airlines deliver a return on capital that exceeds the industry's cost of capital, creating value for its investors.

In addition, the latest IATA’s 20-Year Air Passenger Forecast indicates that by the year 2037, the number of air travelers could double to 8.2 billion from the present level, and the compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of passenger demand would reach 3.5 percent.

The Asia-Pacific region will drive the biggest growth of air passenger demand, with the most number of new passengers coming from China, says IATA, noting that owing to a combination of robust economic growth, improvements in household incomes and favorable population and demographic profiles, more than half the total number of new passengers over the next 20 years will come from the Asia-Pacific markets.

China will displace the United States (US) as the world’s largest aviation market (defined as traffic to, from and within the country) in the mid-2020s, and from 2017 to 2037, China will top the list of the world’s fastest growing aviation markets in terms of annual additional origin-destination passengers with 1 billion new passengers and 1.6 billion passengers in total.

“We are seeing a geographical reshuffling of world air traffic to the East,” said Alexandre de Juniac, IATA’s Director General and CEO. And China is believed to be the strongest driving force behind the shift, since the IATA has predicted that Chinese aviation market will see an average annual growth of 5 percent in the coming 20 years.

IATA's Chief Economist Brian Pearce pointed out that the rapid development in China’s aviation industry is the result of the domestic consumption market and China’s active efforts to open wider to the world and integrate into the global market.

Though global aviation is growing and generating huge benefits for the world, Juniac worried that there will be a significant negative impact on the growth and benefits of aviation if tough and restrictive protectionist measures are implemented.

“Global prosperity depends on air connectivity. Aviation is sensitive to policies that either support or undermine growth,” said Juniac, adding that “governments must understand that globalization has made our world more socially and economically prosperous. Inhibiting globalization with protectionism will see opportunities lost.”  

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